Egypt: results and prospects
Posted on Monday 31 January, 2011
Filed Under International
NOT even people who live in Egypt – and I’ve spoken to several ex-pats this morning, now that mobile phone communications have been restored – seem certain about what will happen there next.
So let’s avoid the leftist parlour game of attempting to shoehorn all social upheavals into the model of the classic class struggles of the twentieth century, and try to develop some sense of the possibilities. Plainly the current stand-off cannot last indefinitely, and will resolve itself one way or another in the days ahead.
What we have so far is, by common consent, a cross-class ‘people power’ uprising in which liberalism has been the dominant note. The calls have been for democracy in the abstract, without a specified class or religious content.
Hosni Mubarak’s gamble in appointing secret policeman Omar Suleiman as vice president has failed to satisfy the clamour for change. Nor have his job creation and food subsidy promises convinced many in a country where half the population of 80m or so live on less than $2 a day.
Unions have declared a general strike tomorrow, and the expectation is that the stoppage will be widely heeded. We know that there is an active Egyptian far left, and Tuesday will presumably provide a pointer to the extent of its clout. The labour movement deserves our solidarity.
Popular self-organisation has so far most been on display in other sections of civil society, although community councils in which investment bankers play a leading role are something of twist hitherto unanticipated by revolutionary theory.
Washington has turned its back on Mubarak, which will be another setback for Egypt’s authoritarian ruler. However, the West would clearly prefer orderly transition to popular revolt. That must deal Mohamed ElBaradei – who counts on the domestic backing of both liberals and the Muslim Brotherhood – a notably strong hand.
Much now hinges on how the armed forces respond. While on the one hand there are reports of extensive fraternisation between civilians and soldiers, the fighter jets buzzing Tahrir Square and the columns of tanks controlling access to the landmark show that things could go the other way, too.
There is also the de Gaulle scenario. I have read reports that Mubarak does have a social base outside the cities, which could yet be mobilised in his support if only he can hold the fort in the days ahead, just as the French president was able to draw on the rural areas to win an election only one month after May 1968.
Thanks to everybody who is contributing to the high quality of the debate in the post below. Your thoughts on the hasty observations above – which are, of course, purely by way of thinking out loud and with no claim to special authority – are equally welcome.
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64 Responses to “Egypt: results and prospects”
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Hi Roger, good to see you back, sort of.
Modernity made the issue with the Zionist lobby when calling another comrade a bigot for mentioning it. I simply pointed out that it does have some relevance (and you seem to be agreeing with me even though you claim to favour Modernity. How puzzling?). But Modernity kept responding with accusations of far right and bigot. Hardly fair bit there you go.
But anyway I had decided to let it go (as you can see I didn’t respond to his latest tirade) but you had to come along with your pompous pronoucements. It must get lonely up there Roger.
You really are insufferable Dean. This is the last time I will address you, no doubt you will make some childish remark. i really pity your (imaginary) girlfriend. What’s it like always being right? Ever heard the words ‘integrity’, honest dealing’etc. Sometimes I think you are here just to derail the debate, Roger is quite right. It’s Dave’s blog and he can have wdhatever guests he wants. I just want you to know, that if I don’t answer your ridiculous assertions about my statements and myself, it’s not because you intimidate me or I know you are right, it’s because I think you are a wanker.
Roger,
I am sorry if my comments concerning Trots, etc seems to have irked you, but I am a longstanding antifascist, and I don’t know your views particularly or your background, so I would assume that you are reasonably opposed to anti-Jewish racism ?
Please correct me if I’m wrong on that particular point.
I’m open about my views as anyone can see from my blog.
My point here has been to focus on the Egyptian people, that’s what we should be thinking about.
The mismash of nasty assertions put forward by these “anti-imperialists” distract from that, and in their frustrations they consciously encourage bigotry towards Israelis.
I disagree with that, and unlike many I am prepared to speak out when I see the idiocy of ex-socialists, like Dean, wade knee deep in conspiracy theories oblivious to the racist connotations that they hold.
Now you can agree or disagree with me, but I am not making any apologies.
In my view, we should be concentrating on how the people of Egypt will free themselves from the Mubarak dictatorship, wishing them well and hope that it spreads across the Middle East, and forget these myopic and irrational conspiracy theories which are the main stay of the Far Right.
I just heard from a visitor to Cairo. Compared it to some parts of India except the Egyptians do not shit or piss openly in public places. This is not a working class protest. It is the better off having a hard time at present. The Brotherhood are playing their cards close to the chest pretending to be democratic and conciliatory, just waiting for an opportunity.
I would like to say that you comments are well placed, Mr James Glasgow
Sewer I reprint your words again and I link to the thread so anyone can view them.
http://www.davidosler.com/2011/01/what-the-palestine-papers-say-about-netanyahu/comment-page-1/#comments
Sewer said in response to a comment I made on 25th January (very early into current events),
“The Americans are pretty confident there won’t be a ‘domino’ effect in the Middle East, due to a) the inclusion of moderate Islamist parties in most governments and b) the fear of the population if not so moderate Islamist took over. That’s what I have gleaned from reading the American papers on-line. But, you keep spewing your bile and schoolboy fantasies, Dean, you’ve obviously not lived through anything like this before.”
I responded,
“Well maybe there won’t be a domino affect (i never said there would be if you learned to read properly), though protests in Egypt and Jordan suggest some sort of affect.”
Then you said, not a week later,
“.Dean: I don’t think I did you know. It was a commonly held view that there would be a domino effect, so I hardly think that I would have accused you of holding a conspiracy theory.”
So Sewer, within the space of a week you went from the word on the street is that there would be no domino affect to everyone and their Granny saying there would be one!!! Keep writing your own history guys and you will never be wrong!
I also said this 2 days ago,
“Now because these protests were sparked by economic factors I cannot see how some orderly transition to nowhere will cut it with sections of the Egyptian people. In which case the army may begin to crack down and the plain clothes thugs may soon reclaim the streets.
Orderly seems optimistic.”
Again, I was pretty spot on. So it isn’t me who derails a debate but you with your idiot racist remarks and statements such as, “No doubt that other foul-mouthed piece of work, the gay council worker, is it Martin?, will be along soon.”
And the reason you don’t respond is because it is all there in black and white.
So we have Dean (correctly) complaining about someone else’s racism but failing to see the bigotry tied into his own conspiratorial notions.
What an irony!
modernity again misuses the word bigotry to describe someone who acknowledges the existence of the pro-Israel lobby, something he’s in denial about. Fits in with his assumption that “Seven Jewish Children” must be anti-semitic because it has the word “Jewish” in the title. A pity, because there appears to be some sort of socialist under his prejudice.
We’ve already been here, if readers would take the trouble to press the older comments button on this thread they will see my objections to this conspiratorial view of the world.
As for the racist play, Seven Jewish children, again I’ve explained why it is racist and until “anti-imperialists” consciously engage with the criticisms of that play then they are merely arguing with their own strawmen.
I will try to put it as succinctly as I can, Seven Jewish Children is racist because:
1) it sets out to reinforced stereotypical views of Jews
2) it portrays Jews in a negative light and consciously does so.
3) ANY play that conspicuously reinforces negative stereotypes of ANY particular ethnic group should be considered racist. That is what 7JC does concerning Jews and therefore should be considered racist.
It would be far better if some “anti-imperialists” went back and re-learnt the basic notion of what constitutes racism, be it anti-Jewish racism, anti-Black, anti-Roma, etc etc then they wouldn’t need it explained to them, time after time.
That reminds me, must watch Louis Theroux on TV tonight. `The Ultra Zionists’.
Didn’t Modernity support the imperialist invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan??? Maybe he and the other ‘sensibles’ should go back to school.
He is even trying to establish a link between anti imperialism and racism, when he is part of the self proclaimed ‘sensible’ clan who think the barbarian natives need white Westerners to tell them how to run things.
Fight racism! Fight imperialism!
`A pity, because there appears to be some sort of socialist under his prejudice.’
That’s what they said about Hitler.
Tsssh! No need to do the Godwin’s Law, thing, leave that to modernity and his friends who like to compare the left to Nazis at every opportunity.
skidmarx. Be honest skiddy you lefties have many among you that would love to put Jews up against the wall. Some of the venemous crap I have heard from British Palestinian supporters supports this. I noted a guy in Glasgow a while back wearing a Che shirt with Palestinian and IRA slogans on it. An insult to Che who fought a real revolution.