After the defeat: what now for Labour?
Posted on Monday 10 May, 2010
Filed Under New Labour
THAT the sheer resilience of working class support for the Labour remains a central principle of British politics is one of the few certainties in what, even four days later, is still a deeply uncertain bigger picture.
Last Thursday the core vote looked the posh boys in the eye, decided it didn’t like what it saw, and promptly forgave the party (almost) everything.
For many ordinary people, even backing an outfit that wholesaled peerages and knighthoods on a cash-and-carry basis, took the country into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, plunged the economy into recession and routinely fiddled its exes proved vastly preferable to turning to the Tories.
Sure, an unfair electoral system that works in Labour’s favour must have helped. But that cannot be the whole story. The fact is, the more bedrock the constituency, the more marked the manifest anti-Conservative sentiment became. Some places in inner London even clocked up swings against Cameron and co.
One or two of the worst Blairite offenders did get turfed out, but even those as egregious as Hazel Blears were dealt a reprieve. Much like a jury at Snaresbrook Crown Court listening to the evidence of a copper, working class Britain was oddly reluctant to convict the obviously guilty.
Only 12 months ago, Labour faced the worst result in its post-war history, perhaps even a rout from which it could never recover. The outlook was a decade of rightwing Tory rule, presenting the British National Party with every opportunity to consolidate a permanent base.
Of course, what happened last week can only be regarded as a setback for the socialist left; anything other than a Labour victory always is. But compared to many other scenarios, we got off lightly, comrades.
Like most people who take part in general elections at local rather than national level, I cannot help but view the wider campaign from the standpoint of the constituency in which I participated on the ground.
In Hayes & Harlington, Labourworld proved impregnable. The outcome was much, much better than I called it on the day. In absolute terms, John McDonnell’s vote even increased; any relative decline is largely down to boundary changes.
The strength of John’s personal support constantly surprised me, and demonstrates that it is possible to combine the role of figurehead for the hard left assiduous work as a constituency MP.
There is clearly a lesson here for those in Westminster who enjoy the meretricious attentions of the television camera and the sugar rush of the widely-reported soundbite rather more than the hard graft of serving those they purport to represent.
Nationwide, the upshot is the Tories failed – for the fourth time in succession – to secure a majority on the floor of the House of Commons. Even so, parliamentary arithmetic alone suggests either a Tory-Lib Dem coalition or a minority Conservative government, with another election in perhaps a year at most. The Guardian really should have been careful what it wished for.
At least the former outcome will have the further advantage of disabusing proponents of ‘progressive centre-left realignment’ of the questionable notion that the Lib Dems are somehow on the centre-left in the first place.
In short, the contention that Labour will be able to bounce back is by no means axiomatic. But it is at least possible. With Gordon Brown now thankfully out of the way, there is plenty still to play for.
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38 Responses to “After the defeat: what now for Labour?”
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Dave,
I see what you are getting at, but you are (as we all do) gilding the lily.
I think there is more hatred of the Tories than any love of Labour.
Labour were the only ones who could beat the Tories, and despite everything else that’s what it came down to, in my mind.
The Tories didn’t help themselves by constantly going on about cuts, which people knew would be job cuts and driving down the economy.
Labour got very lucky, in spite of themselves.
Politically, it would be shrewd for Labour to be in opposition for 6-9 months and prepare for the next election.
The problem is the leadership, I suspect that new Labour control freaks will largely have say in who gets in, my bet’s on Ed Balls or similar.
Brown will be ennobled, but he wants a mate as Labour leader and they’ll try to fix it like that.
It would be better if the LP could out flank the Tories from the Left with some renationalisation, reinvestment and old-fashioned social democracy, but I doubt that’s going to happen.
@Dave + Everyone: Who are you backing for leader?
HarpyMarx has backed John McDonnell- is that wise, or will that split the left between Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and John McDonnell to such an extent that David Miliband gets in easily?
And what if he does become leader? Left-wing leader with integrity versus hostile media in the first election after defeat? We’ve been there before, how would this time be different?
I’ll probably end up backing Cruddas since i dont think John Mc will get on the ballot paper. Although presumably he’ll need fewer MP’s this time than he did 2 years ago??
“will that split the left between Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and John McDonnell to such an extent that David Miliband gets in easily?”
It’s an AV system so that shoudn’t matter.
The problem is that he’s unlikely to get the nominations he needs, I’ve done the maths here: http://reasonandrevolt.wordpress.com/2010/05/10/prospects-for-a-john-mcdonnell-leadership-bid/
If the Labour party opt for anyone that gave credence to the anti working class fascist PIRA then Labour are finished for decades. Gordon Broon was a decent fair minded bloke but not everyone in Britain is of that nature. A good man gone into the scrapheap of history. I have to admit the Tory scum press and media did another good job. Thirteen years of taxpayers money going into the health service, education etc must have really pissed off the upper crust and the wine sipping chattering pretend liberal socialists.
Seems unlikely that John McDonnell could do it, not that he won’t be an improvement on the current crop of Tory lites.
If you look at LRC’s supported MPs and assuming they vote for McDonnell that’s only 29 MPs, which is a bit on the low side. Perhaps he’d win over a few more but that’s out of 258 MPs.
The maths makes it unlikely that McDonnell could get 128+ MPs voting for him, not impossible, but I can’t see it.
Right, so there’s a Labour leadership campaign and as many predicted following the election the ideological future of the party is more flexible than it’s been for a decade. I want to sign up.
Does anyone what the obligations for members include?
Is there any difference between signing up as a standard member, a member of Young Labour, or as a member of Labour Students? Especially important is whether or not Young Labourites and Labour students can vote in leadership elections?
Tah.
All those protecting their Marxist-Leninist virginity from outside the party will have no say in this important leadership election.
You need to have been a member for sixth months before you can vote in leadership elections or PPC elections.
All that need be said about Boy Wonder Cameron has been said by the people on the Mark Steyn website …
http://www.steynonline.com/content/view/3263/59/
As for Semtex McDonnell, is it serious believed that he’d command more respect than Postman Pat, the Deep Thinker from the sorting office?
Perhaps Bill, you should explain why IRA Semtex is worse than British Army C4?
“Perhaps JIMMY GLESGA,should explain why IRA Semtex is worse than British Army C4?”
“That’s a nice pair of kneecaps ye’ve got there. Be a shame if anything happened to them.”
“They haven’t gone away, ye know.”
PIRA engaged in an armed conspiracy and rebellion, complete with torture, abductions and secret graves, despite Norn Iron* being a place with free and fair elections.
Years later Brownie the Barman told an audience of witless gullible empty-skulled Irish-Americans that the poor oppressed Taigs of Norn Iron were deprived of the right to vote.
When challenged on this a little later by Irish journalists, Brownie blustered about the Prods having had the business vote in local elections in places like Newry and Enniskillen and, sure, wasn’t that the same as the Protestant ironmongers and haberdashers depriving the Taigs of the vote …
* var. The Occupied Six Counties
Of course, the UK currently has to borrow 500,000,000 quid a day to meet current expenditure. The Irish Republic has to borrow 28,000,000 Euros a day to meet current expenditure.
Would Newry or Derry be richer or poorer if the border were to be redrawn and the postboxes painted green?
Answer: not much either way.
Since the Republic is now secular to the point where condoms are included in the welcome package given out by Students’ Unions in Irish colleges – there was hardly even a minor furore about this when it happened last year – and the ratio between RC priests being ordained and priests retiring or dying in sacerdotal office is roughly 1:10, the ancient issue of ‘Home Rule Means Rome Rule’ no longer applies.
Simon – Did The British Army supply C4 to the UVF, UFF or similar vile people in the same open-handed way that the Despot of Tripoli supplied the PIRA with Semtex?
Here’s a wee bit about Brownie the Barman …
http://sluggerotoole.com/2009/05/31/sweet-little-lies/
And about the Oppression of the Taigs in the Occupied Six Counties …
http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2009/11/18/return-of-the-mope-irish-history-according-to-gerry-adams/
Marxists inside the affiliated Trade Unions *will* get a say.
Interesting and sober post Dave, and yes the core vote held and returned, holding tight to nurse maybe, but also after looking at what else is on offer. BUT do you realy think that the past thirteen plus years were an aboration? That the erosion of the LP as a party that believes in anything other is to be reversed? That its organisational base is remotely intact? Bluntly, that it has a bloody ideological clue except holding its breath and hoping for “something” to turn up.
I heard Livingstone say last night that the “left” (sic) will now get behind either Ed Miliband or Ed Balls. What a confession of total f. bankruptcy.
And for God’s sake, can you stop Corr from incessantly derailing your site? Bring back YTS?
McDonnell’s the one!
http://tendancecoatesy.wordpress.com/2010/05/11/progressive-coalition-a-millstone-mcdonnell-for-leader/
One two, one two, comrade there’s a place for you – in the united front for McDonnell!
Ed Balls currently has a majority of barely 1000 in his seat, which is hardly a strong base for a prospective party leader, aside from his other failings.
If the Labour Party chooses someone from within the present clique to be its new leader then it will have proved that it has learnt nothing from its recent decline.
“All those protecting their Marxist-Leninist virginity from outside the party will have no say in this important leadership election.”
we will if we are members of affiliated unions, and of course even more so if office holders or delegates onto decision making bodies in those unions
“You need to have been a member for sixth months before you can vote in leadership elections or PPC elections.”
you get a vote via your trade union
Andy,
I must thank you for providing an outlet to the leader of the war party, Gordon Brown, it is not like he’s short of vehicles for his propaganda, eh?
So far I had managed to avoid his repetitive utterances, so it was all the more surprising to see his guff on the site of a onetime revolutionary and SWPer.
Is this part of a continued pattern? Will SU blog be publishing “Gordon Brown’s most memorable speeches” or “Tidbits and witticisms from Gordon Brown”?
I appreciate that a blog needs new material, but Andy, surely you were scraping the barrel with Gordon Brown? You must see that?
The fact that some people see the Eds Balls and Miliband as left speaks volumes. Despite the wish fulfilment of some, where’s the evidence that the Labour vote was a positive one? Are there thousands of workers and trade union militants pouring back in? Or is it a case of voting for the party least likely to inflict damage? When people refer to virginal marxist-leninists, is this to contrast us to the much more wordly-wise members of a party with the blood of tens of thousands of people on its hands?
To burst the cosy self-justifying narratives of Labour Party members about the far left, the SP vote went up in the local elections in Coventry and Lewisham. Clearly we can’t relate to ordinary people like the working class heroes on this site.
Scanning the commets above I may have to arrive at the conclusion that Jimmy Glegsa’s last comment has provided the most sensible view.
Take offence guys.
Johnno reminds me of the old philosophical conumdrum; if a tree fell in a forest unobserved, hodw would we know that it made a crashing noise? Does anyone listen/read (to) what Johnno writes?
H. I do not know much about explosives except that they can kill. Now considering the PIRA targeted many working class people in pubs, clubs, bus stations and even churches it is rather strange that a Labour politician would give such an organisation any words of comfort. The Belfast Bus Stn had bombs with ball bearings and nails placed in the bus shelters. Not many of our establishment use buses, H.
Add Jimmy Glasgo to that as well.
That’s funny Jimmy, I can think of several examples of the British Army attacking bus stations and other public spaces in Iraq, Afghanistan, Ireland and many other places in my lifetime.
Do you find it strange that a Labour politician would give such an organisation any words of comfort?
SueR said,
“Does anyone listen/read (to) what Johnno writes?”
Well there’s you for a start!
Now let’s not allow the media to foist upon us a Blairite as leader: we’re already being told it’s David Milliband before any contest has even begun; not, as you might think, because he’s “media savvy” – as if the right-wing press cared about OUR leaders being that! – but because he is safe; the bailouts have cleared, and they wish to go back to talk about “free-markets” and “non-interference”.
How about some real change?, for a change.
Ed Balls a candidate of the left? As someone has pointed out, his majority is wafer-thin. i don’t want a choice between four NL candidates – and that includes Cruddas
It would undoubtedly be difficult for John McDonnell to get on the ballot paper. That is hardly a reason to throw in the towel now. As for the maths, he needs to sway around 13 MPs to do it. Difficult, yes. Impossible,no. And then Party mmebers get a say . At the very least, a McDonnell candidacy would make it very difficult indeed for the left to be marginalised as it has been for a generation.Don;t fall for the media spin
The present arrangement at Westminster is really only temporary so the Labour Party needs to prepare for the next election and devise a strategy to beat the Tories and the Liberals.
As is obviously apparent, they can’t beat them by adopting their policies, they’ve tried that and after 13 years they lost.
So it would be far better IF Labour tried to outflank the Liberals and the Tories from the Left, it would at least have the benefit of surprise (if only on the new Labour side), going for renationalisation of the railways, taking private utilities into public ownership and stepping back from the half-hearted and failed privatisations, etc etc
That could be a successful strategy, but it would depend on a halfway competent leader, and preferably someone with at least moderate Left credentials, and that’s the stumbling block.
I can’t see any Leftie getting at good shot a the job of Labour leader, it will be fitted up by the residue of new Labour apparatchiks, so some ex-Blairite/Brownie is more liable to get it.
That’s the problem, how best can Labour beat the Tories NEXT time? More of the same won’t work.
for gods sake (sorry just a saying im not religous) can we all stop stabbing each other in the back and start to focus on the real enemy. The problem that labour has is me and people like me. No i am definatly not tory, i am a union rep at the school that i work at as a teacher, i am not a member of the labour party and my union is not affiliated to the labour party and all we need do is ask ourselves why? Labour had 13 years to repeal all the anti union legislation imposed by thatcher but it did nothing, labour did not embrace the unions but embraced the city and big business instead and where did that get us. When will society be honest enough to admit that we cannot get something for nothin and start to say to big business that they need to be socialy aware. Look at it this way, would you invite lewis hamilton to a party at No 10 when he was world champion knowing that he had taken his money abroad and was not paying UK tax, no, but the Blair years would. Get back to socialism and rebuild the party and I and my union may well join you.
After a long period of labour government the country was ready for a change. The fact that Labour was not demolished and the Tories did not get an overall majority shows that there is no deep seated anger or disillusionment with the Labour party. Assuming that Labour manage to elect a new leader and survive in opposition without infighting they have every chance of recovering in the next election. It all depends on what the new government manages to deliver.
The British Army’s attacks on bus stations and other public spaces in Ireland has, alas, gone underreported.
Possibly a well-mammaried starlet was having a wardrobe malfunction at the time of the Ballinastoat Bus Station Massacre [it's probably on a Christie Moore album] so we didn’t hear about it.
The BAllinadolequeue Bus Station Massacre is featured on
UP THE RA
by ‘The Rubberbandits’ in the same song which commemorates the Great Potato Famine of 1916
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvKrNYw8ApE&feature=fvsr
Funds were provided by the Muammar Gadhaffi Cumman of Provisional Sinn Fein
Is Richard Harris in the right age cohort for YTS?
Just wondering.
Comrade Coates and I will probably be put on the zimmer frame assembly line if there’s a job creation scheme going at the Conservative Freedom Works.