Euroelections: 1994 and now
Posted on Monday 8 June, 2009
Filed Under Politics
REMEMBER the factional disarray that beset Conservative governments in the early 1990s, as Labour supporters gleefully watched the Major administrations unravel before our very eyes?
I can’t help being struck by the parallels between the political climate then and now. Except that this time round, Labour is the butt of the joke and it is the Tories that require a continuous supply of dry underwear.
One obvious comparison is the state of the UK economy, which had undergone serious turbulence in the preceding two years, as a result of the unconstrained financial markets that Thatcherism deified and the Labourism of the period still half-heartedly contemplated reining in.
The nation was outraged that a handful of Conservative backbenchers had pocketed bungs in plain brown paper envelopes for tabling parliamentary questions, although the furore was as nothing compared to the apoplexy generated by the expenses crisis.
Red top kiss ‘n’ tell activity reached the level of a minor cottage industry, with tales of Juanita Maneater’s improbable feats of athleticism with ministers clad in Chelsea shirts, knocked-up local councillors, and bed-sharing on holidays in France to ‘save on hotel bills’ generating widespread moral indignity, most of it entirely feigned.
There has been nothing like it until earlier this year, when the News of the World published those pictures of Nigel ‘Babe Magnet’ Griffiths in flagrante delicto drunkenly chasing some leggy chick in stockings round the office sofa.
The impression – which, as a Labour-supporting journalist, I naturally did my utmost to propagate – was of a fag-end government going through the motions until the electorate could administer the necessary coup de grace.
So it was that even before the 1994 euroelections, everyone knew Labour was on course for a massive victory in the general election that was to come. Yet somehow the outcome of the contest served to confirm the prognosis, just as last night’s results offers a pointer to the impending return of the Conservatives.
To recap, 15 years ago, the first major electoral outing for New Labour under the leadership of Tony Blair saw the party secure 43%, a far cry from the nugatory 16% it scored last night.
The Tories got 27%, a share only fractionally less than the 28% that has enabled it to emerge as the most popular party this time round. That was considered a disastrous showing as the time.
The Lib Dems were on 16%, again in the same ball park as their performance last Thursday. UKIP hardly registered, with a laughable 1%, and the main far right challenger, the National Front, managed just 0.1% for its five candidates.
On the evidence of last night, Cameron is not building anything like the same base of positive support that Blair was able to create. But then he doesn’t have to, because the collapse of the governing party is all the more comprehensive. If only Brown had done as well as Major managed at the equivalent juncture, he wouldn’t have anything to worry about.
On the ideological level, it is worth pointing out that an absolutely majority of voters last night voted for parties of the right. The aggregate tally for the Conservatives, UKIP and the BNP comes in a shade over 50%.
Within that figure, we see that one Briton in five of those that can be bothered to turn out voted either for a reactionary rightist formation or an out-and-out fascist organisation.
So much for the argument that economic downturn is generally a harbinger of leftist revival. From our point of view, the 2010s looks distinctly worrying.
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17 Responses to “Euroelections: 1994 and now”
So much for the argument that economic downturn is generally a harbinger of leftist revival.
A trustworthy, not plainly stupid old-labouralike party with a commitment to direct democracy would clean up.
Shame there’s nothing remotely like that on offer isn’t it?
BNP’s policies are economically similar to Labour and the BNP large pick-up disaffected working class votes from Labour – so incorrect to group in with the right.
Your conclusions about the Tories ignore the local election results and the fact that European elections are poor predictors of General Election results.
Labour is in melt-down. The Conservatives have revealed about as many policies as Tony Blair had in 1994. The general mood is time for change.
So much for the argument that economic downturn is generally a harbinger of leftist revival.
In the 1930s the chief beneficiary was fascism.
In the 1970s it was neoliberalism.
I think we can now bury this myth once and for all.
That horrible little ex-SDPer Danny Finkelstein pointed out on TV last night that actually in times of capitalist crisis it’s often (paradoxically) the right who benefit.
That will be even more true if it’s a nominally centre-left governing party which is seen as responsible for the capitalist crisis.
Isn’t there something about a crisis of leadership?
One Briton in five of those that can be bothered to turn out voted either for a reactionary rightist formation or an out-and-out fascist organisation
By my estimate anyone who is white and doesn’t have a University degree is now more likely to vote for UKIP/BNP than they are for any other party.
Well people are angry to give labour a jolt they will vote for anyone, sadly it’s failed again Labour are saying yes but this is not real politic.
What the hell do we have to do to get them to wake up vote in a Tory party.
yes i agree with above if we had a real labour socialist government unemployment would he held back or at least they try, JSA would be increased because in 2009 nobody and I mean nobody can live on £64 a week.
And if your under 25 it’s what £32 a week for god sake.
We needed a labour party and we got is Brown and a bunch of people in the main hand picked by the party leaders.
£32 a week? It used to be £24 a week in the early 1980s.
‘BNP’s policies are economically similar to Labour and the BNP large pick-up disaffected working class votes from Labour – so incorrect to group in with the right’
Wow, both rubbish and concise
By my estimate anyone who is white and doesn’t have a University degree is now more likely to vote for UKIP/BNP than they are for any other party.
I see the more crudely snobbish elements of the middle class faux-left are breaking cover.
This, in the long run, is an excellent development, the more openly the middle-class faux left exposes its true colours the faster and more thoroughly we can totally discard them and start anew.
Initially at least, it is often the right, not the left, that benefits from economic crisis. In Germany, the KPD grew after the Wall Street Crash but the Nazis grew by leaps and bounds. I think in Britain, the CPGB actually lost members at first in the wake of the Depression, when you might have expected it to gain them.
Robert – I agree with your points, but JSA for under 25s is £48PW. Bloody scroungers, living the life of luxury etc etc.
Dave – what was a pint in the early 1980s for comparison? Considerably less than half the current price I’ll bet.
Worth bearing in mind that if you don’t qualify for the New Deal, you get nothing at all after 6 months.
Interesting article in today’s Guardian on the European “left”…
“It’s a timebomb for the (European) left. The white under-class is really feeling the pinch. They are the first to lose their jobs. The rhetoric from the extremists is frightening, but it sounds reasonable to them. The mainstream governing parties of the right, meanwhile, are playing it safe…launching huge public spending programmes and putting their countries first, as in France and Germany…
The centre-left bought into capitalism a LONG time ago and now don’t have anything new to say,” said (Hugh) Brady of the Centre for European Reform, “The centre-right is a safe pair of hands. Voters don’t want a revolution. They want the party that will get them out of trouble or keep things stable until they get better.
The usual labels can also be misleading. A summit of European leaders next week in Brussels, for example, will see Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy challenging Brown to agree to tighter regulation of Europe’s financial markets. Brown will resist, to defend the City of London from EU intrusiveness. The mainstream centre-right leaders of Europe are often to the left of British Labour prime ministers.”
Centre left becomes centre right becomes centre left…Last tango with Miliband.
Isn’t it time we all stopped dancing around the corpse of the Labour Party? Our blinkered frame of reference? David Miliband on the Today programme pitching Blairism MK2….”And…Hey, I’m here!” That’s a future that he thinks inspires?
Robert: “JSA would be increased because in 2009 nobody and I mean nobody can live on £64 a week”.
Indeed that princely sum of £64.50…. and where McNulty and Purnell (missing ya already guys!) refused to increase the rate of JSA. But even Tony ‘flipper’ McNulty admitted he couldn’t afford to live on that amount of money…indeed he needs two houses…and £64.50 won’t get you that far…
Before those on the left completely dismiss the BNP as a “right wing organisation” who got votes because the right are doing well, look at who they appealed to directly and look at what they were proposing.
Whole scale state ownership, not just a ban on immigrants but a ban on imports, protectionist policies that would have led to a trade war, playing to the same card Labour was playing to – it is all the bankers fault.
The policy memes they played on are old socialist memes long abandoned by Labour but still believed in by Labour heartland voters who voted for them.
This is why the Labour vote went from to the BNP. It was hardly a Pro Tory vote.
This was the fault of GOrdon Brown playing to the Labour heartland dog whistles, and yes it has to be said a lot of them are racist. Brown reaped what he sewed and if he carries on playing to those dog whistles as the recession bites more it will get worse not better.
The left /right viewpoint is wrong anyway. Which is why that model fails to properly sit Libertarians and anarchists.
“By my estimate anyone who is white and doesn’t have a University degree is now more likely to vote for UKIP/BNP than they are for any other party.” Innocent Abroad
“I see the more crudely snobbish elements of the middle class faux-left are breaking cover.” Scratch
Any evidence for saying that Innocent Abroad is on the left. He or she could be a right-winger. There are plenty of Tories posting here.
Dave as you get older your memory tends to fade,Labour did not fight the 1994 European election under Tony Blair as you say above.As you know I was the most unlikely Labour MEP elected that night and our leader was ……. Margaret Becket! John Smith had died 2 weeks before the vote and although Blair had cast his hat in the ring he was by no means a certainty for leader by June 9th. You are of course right that Labours victory in 1994 was its greatest since 1945 and we got 62 MEPs elected compared to the 13 elected last Sunday,and last Sundays 16% was the worse since 1918 however 1994 was not due to Tony Blair even Neil Kinnock would have won in 1994 and 1997, by that time the Tories were a busted flush just as Labour are now.So dont build up Blairs reputation, he didnt make Labour electable his contribution was to cleanse Labours links to socialism and Gordon Brown was his chief supporter even if Brown hated him.Now Labour is abandoned by the working class it has betrayed and it deserves it, and you Dave will no doubt be mourning it while we are attempting to build something better!