I’ve always argued that the main reason New Labour won the last three elections was not so much widespread enthusiasm for Blairism as the invincible inbuilt advantage it enjoyed simply by not being the Tories.
The problem is, with memories of Margaret Thatcher and Black Wednesday both fading fast in the public mind, the NBTT strategy is no longer the banker it has been for more than a decade.
This point was underlined to me recently while chatting with a bright 23-year-old guy - black, probably lower middle class - over breakfast. Given that the scene of the meal was a Cambridge University weekend school in modern philosophy, that’s ‘bright’ as in pretty bloody clever.
At first, the small talk centred on a spot of mutual joshing over the age gap, but soon gravitated towards the political events of the late eighties, the period in which Edward was born.
Maybe he was just being polite, but he seemed interested enough to hear about the campaigns against the poll tax and the Criminal Justice Bill. Indeed, the idea that a government seriously tried to ban house music he found uproariously amusing. Come to think of it, that was probably one of their better ideas ...
But, as I immediately reflected, the conversation must have been the equivalent of listening to some old git rambling on about the era of Macmillan and Douglas-Hume would have been to me back in 1983.
Now, I would rather play six successive rounds of Russian roulette with the same revolver than ever vote Conservative. I deeply and viscerally loathe the Tories with the same passion I did when I was a long-term unemployed youth, and I suspect that nothing could ever change that.
But having recently attended the funeral of a near contemporary for the first time, I am well aware that my generation is now firmly middle-aged.
People like Edward can have only the haziest memories of Thatcherism and what it represented. Within months, there will be people on the electoral role who were not even born during the Thatcher’s time in office.
I have heard it said that many young adults hated Blair as much as my friends and I hated Thatcher. I don’t really get that sense, to be honest. While the Iraq war and being landed with tens of thousands of pounds of debts after three years in a second rate university won’t have endeared them to New Labour, the intensity is thankfully lacking.
Depoliticisation is more common than activism, and if people are not radicals in their teens and early twenties, they almost certainly never will be radicals.
But I do know that some of my younger workmates backed Boris Johnson in the London elections, so presumably admitting to voting Tory is no longer so uncool as to automatically preclude getting a result on a first date.
Labour must either come up with meaningful policies that appeal to the youth vote, or watch them either abstain or turn to Cameron simply because ‘the other lot’ at least represent change. No amount of celebrity endorsements is going to counter that.
Posted at 13:28, 2 July 2008
Comments (21)
It was a shock when I realised about six months ago that my/our generation were no longer the standard bearers. I remember as a young un hearing tales of the '40s and '50s, the recent past, and nowd ofcourse, the youngsters regard the '70s and the '80s in the same way. Often, one hears such dreadful howlers on television programmes, obviously written by 30-somethings. A complete lack of understanding about life was really like. Was it Shakespeare who said, 'The past is another country'? Bloody right. The point is that New Labour was explicitly set up to depolicise society, to remove any taint of socialism or collectivity from peoples' thinking which is why they leap on all this individulistic rights nonsense. It's only a tiny ray of sunshine but I thought the spontaneous march yesterday protesting about knife crime in London was a start. Reminded me of the days of the London Mob. I really, really really hope that young people will be able to reclaim the streets from the gangsters and drug dealers and in so doing, discover a new vital socialilst dynamic.
I would agree with Dave that depoliticisation is more widespread than activism and that is born out by turnout statistics.
But there are MILLIONS of young voters who have never known Conservative governments as adults (and whose families may not have suffered under the Tories and ended up with a lifelong antipathy to them like some of us...) who are very angry with the Labour government.
I have heard fellow under-30s talk about never voting Labour (/again) because of the war, because of their local Labour council, because of housing, because of the environment, because of rising prices and falling wages, because of crime and/or the perception of it etc. Who these people of all social classes and ethnic backgrounds end up voting for will depend on many factors but it will almost always be Tory, BNP, Lib Dem or Green.
The only youngish people I ever meet with a genuine belief in government policies are the weirdly cheerful, shiny-faced drones that flock to Young Labour or Labour Students events. Given that they can't be expecting much of a successful career from a party on the way down they must genuinely believe in all that Third Way crap.
Anyway, it's worrying. Labour won't be kept in power forever by the votes of those who remember the Tories and will do anything to stop them getting back in.
I also think that some (uninformed) young people being of a libertarian, anti-authoritarian bent, as they often are, will perceive the Tories as not being as oppressive - on things like ID cards, 42 days - as the ruling Labour caste, and this may engender support for the Cosnervatives.
I agree that Labour have lived off NBTT, rather than their own strengths, for a long time.
It's an ongoing tragedy that when Labour falter it's the Tories who pick up support.
You may have thought 1968 would be a good time for the far Left to pick up votes but the economic depression in that year, under a Labour government, saw places like Lambeth council turn blue in a big shift rightwards.
I think it is probably a smallish number of centrists voters, who switch between the main parties who determine elections - and there's probably going to be more young people like that at the next election. And that will be Labour's own fault.
And to Rory - I remember the Tories, they never went away, just changed brand - we have to get rid of them rather than stop them coming back
and on Sue, yes, I was impressed and encouraged by the spontaneity of the march yesterday against the murder of the young man in Islington. And it did remind me of the London Mob - in the best possible sense, I doubt there was a politician there.
But I also noticed from the TV that they all, and I saw a large crowd, appeared white - which might be understandable in Hartlepool but not in Holloway.
I wouldn't say that Blair was as unpopular as Thatcher. But, as with everything else, there is certainly a common theme.
Iraq is almost universally opposed by those who are young and have opinions. Most of them are also concerned with the elevel of inequality and the poor quality of entry level jobs.
I'd say that Britain's youth are socially liberal and softly social-democratic economically.
Unfortunately, the wider Labour Party has a problem firstly in that it will not engage young people on their issues (lots of bashing, little courting - which is our fault for not voting, really), and that it is percieved as neither elft of centre or socially liberal.
For young people who are within the remaining politicised stratum, the Lib Dems are, worryingly, disproportionately attractive.
What blinkered comments from previous posters. Just what does this government have to do to piss you off? Slaughter all the first-born? Admit lying over WMD? You have just confirmed my opinion of "Independent" readers as totally off this planet and PC to a lunatic extent. (Sue, It was LPHartley who wrote "The past is another country", not Shakespeare - you must have gone to a comprehensive school!
" also think that some (uninformed) young people being of a libertarian, anti-authoritarian bent, as they often are, will perceive the Tories as not being as oppressive - on things like ID cards, 42 days - as the ruling Labour caste, and this may engender support for the Cosnervatives."
That worries me as well. There's a newly-developing consensus (among the younger and the less politically aware, as well as people looking for an excuse to support the winning side at the next General Election) that, in the absence of economic left/right arguments, politics in the UK today comes down to "authoritarian" ZaNu Labour versus the newly-repackaged "libertarian" Tories (let's ignore the fact that it's a funny kind of libertarian who wants to restrict abortion rights and bring back Section 28). This myth needs to be exploded.
@McGazz - Yes, the Greens seem particularly adept at tapping into a often poorly expressed dislike of the 'system' and the status quo.
It's a shame that the many students I spoke to during London mayoral election see them as radical and worth their support - just watch someone like (future Dame) Jenny Jones, Green GLA member in action to see how hidebound, deferential, business friendly and conservative they are.
@Older - I don't think anyone awake would think from the above that I, or others, are apologists for Labour (or Independent readers - I recommend the current around 20p a copy promotional subscription delivery of the WSJE). I hate them and the Tories equally.
And actually Hartley wrote "The past is a foreign country"
Southpawpunch (public school)
Another factor in the mix is that many younger Labour supporters only know post 1997 success, so it will be a bit destabilising when the the Tories get in, especially if we take a real beating.
Off on a tangent I've got to say I am a bit confused by people who have spent the entire period from 1997 till now trying to tell anyone that will listen that Labour are no different to the Tories and are then surprised that people vote Tory because they think they are no worse than Labour. Reap what you sow and all that.
Older: Thank you for putting me in my place. Yes, 'The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there.'. A quotation from the Prologue of 'The Go-Between'. If I could just take the opportunity to say that 'The Go Between' was one of the most influential books on my young imagination of 11. I discovered it by chance in my GRAMMAR school library and thought it was the most fantastic book I had ever read, and by that age, I'd read a fair few. In later years I tried to read other L P Hartley novels but they just bored me. You are partly right though, Older, my school actually became a comprehensive while I was there in the 4th year (Year 10 in new money). I never recovered.
Southpawpunch: Public school. That explains a lot. Fanaticism. Belief in your own infallibility. Yes, they were an overwhelmingly white crowd. I read in the paper that the demo had been organised by e-mail and a social networking site. Are you going to condemn people for not having politically correct friends? A group of black bereaved mothers organise a demo on knife killing a couple of weeks ago in London. That demo was overwhelmingly black. What I think would be absolutely fantastic is if the two groups could get together. Rememember the whole is greater than the sum of its parts (and other gnomic mutterings!).
Surely the enormous expansion of student grants to 16 & 17 year olds is an excellent reason for young people to vote Labour?
Tory MP Chris Grayling called Educational Maintenance Allowances "a gimmick" and Camerwrong has promoted him to the shadow cabinet.
@Tom. I don' get your point. Labour does = Tory = LibDem - the only differences are insignificant. I don't have a preference when people about which rightwing party people vote for
@Sue - maybe Older did get one thing right, a lack of ability in English? I didn't condemn anyone, merely noted (with regret). I'd say it's pretty unusual to get an all white crowd in inner London - usually there would be a few black male partners at the very least.
Southpaw: If only I had learned to read properly and with comprehension, then how different my life would have turned out!!! Blame the comprehensive element of my education. Why remark upon the constitution of the demo if you weren't making a snidy point?
A simple one or way to look at it. When my local school who has for years run elections at the same time as the government, stated Labour has won elections until a few years ago, kids voted like the parents, but the last two elections Labour came third and second, they were beat by the Tories, my own grand kids told me they would vote Tory and they are getting ready to leave school, reason they said Labours messed around with education, Labours done nothing for the poor, when I say to them what about the min wage they say so.
The fact is we have little difference anymore between the Tories and Labour, Labour is out to sell off the DWP to perhaps the catholic church the church of what ever or some American company to make a profit.
I would never vote Tory well I would now if they took and looked at my problems, Blair and Brown has taken away anything I felt for this party a long time ago.
A Foot/Kinnock combo would have had the same result in 1997.
Labour sold their soul and will reap the reward at the next election.
Educated,middle class lefties will stare in true horror at the once unimaginable turnout for the BNP.
I predict a Lib/Lab merger.
I agree with your first line, Joe, but I'm not sure what you mean to suggest in the third line of your comment. Surely there'll be plenty of horrified working class lefties, too. And I'm uncomfortable with the idea that only middle class lefties are educated. Got a bit of a elitist Fabian thing going on here?
I agree with your first line, Joe, but I'm not sure what you mean to suggest in the third line of your comment. Surely there'll be plenty of horrified working class lefties, too. And I'm uncomfortable with the idea that only middle class lefties are educated. Got a bit of an elitist Fabian thing going on here?
I also think that some (uninformed) young people being of a libertarian, anti-authoritarian bent
On the contrary, it's those who still vote Labour despite their continuous assault on all kinds of civil liberties that are the ones who are really uninformed.
I mean't middle aged, sorry.
It's got nothing to do with forgetting Thatcher or the poll tax or the Criminal Justice Bill.
Young people aren't voting Labour, since policies aren't oriented towards them, whether it's 10p and low-waged youth, or tuition fees, or the mass criminalisation of youth with ASBOs, or childcare, or a lack of investment in sexual health/sexual education. If policies get oriented towards them, they'll support vote for a given party. It's really that simple.
That's why youth across the political spectrum are alienated, since no political parties, apart from on-campus efforts from the Greens, are oriented towards them.
``the idea that a government seriously tried to ban house music he found uproariously amusing. Come to think of it, that was probably one of their better ideas ...''
Ignorant question from across the pond: what is ``house music''? Here if they banned Rap ``music'' in public places as a public nuisance, I'd be all for it.