Darkness on the edge of Brown
Posted on Monday 10 December, 2007
Filed Under New Labour
What happens if Gordon Brown – pictured left – loses the next election? That’s not a done deal as yet, of course; but it’s easy enough to concoct a scenario for an Old Etonian takeover of Number Ten in 2009 or 2010.
A few more dodgy donor revelations, a few more fluffed PMQs, a 20% fall in house prices, and it’s ‘game over’ for New Labour. What would the political landscape look like then?
Much will depend on the true nature of the Cameron project. Labour supporters are in the same position as the Tories were between 1994-97, when they were unsure whether New Labourism was for real, or simply apparent moderation that concealed a more radical ‘demon eyes’ agenda. We know the answer now, of course.
Either Cameron means all the touchy-feely stuff or he doesn’t. So either we will get essentially a continuity Blairite government, or it is back to Nasty Party basics.
One specific difference is that the Tory right will be better placed than the Labour left were when Blair took office. There has been no Clause Four moment, and nowhere near the systematic attempt to extirpate the ideological true believers that Labour mounted in the years of the Mandelson Inquisition.
Once New Labour is back in opposition, there will of course be a post-mortem on the three terms it served in government, with the likely consensus that those 12 or 13 years could and should have been rather more social democratic than they were.
This is not to predict a swing back to trade union influence or the rebirth of Bennism. The institutional mechanisms are no longer there to enable that to take place. It could, nevertheless, bring about a qualified shift to the left.
After the defeat, there will be at least four identifiable factions within Labour. On the far right, we will find a Milburn Tendency of irreconcilable Blairite ultras, jumping up and down and screaming ‘I told you so’. We might even find out for sure who made the prediction that Brown would be a ‘fucking awful prime minister’.
Some could well defect to the Tories, making the same accommodation to prevailing winds as Shaun Woodward and Alan Howarth once did in the other direction. In truth, little separates them from the Cameroons, anyway.
On the left, the Labour Representation Committee is capable of making limited headway over the next period, especially if it follows its new stategy of linking up with campaigns outside the Labour Party. But that is unlikely to translate to internal influence.
In the mainstream, we will find the Brownites and the apparatchiks, probably in defensive mode. Finally, we could also have a fourth trend, with the emergence of a Compassite neo soft-left around Jon Cruddas.
The Labour Co-ordinating Committee de nos jours might well be able to point to the example of the US with a Democrat – whether Clinton or Obama – in the Oval Office, operating on a ‘globalisation backlash’ agenda that includes protectionism and greater receptiveness to the trade union bureaucracies.
If the New Labour project does prove to be exhausted – and all political projects do eventually come to an end – and the soft left can forge a coherant British cover version of the US chart-topper, they will have at least a chance of future dominance.
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Comments
26 Responses to “Darkness on the edge of Brown”
Dave what a doom-monger you are so close to Christmas and so far from the next General Election. For the reasons-to-be-cheerful style anti-dote there’s always this http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2224718,00.html
So you’re saying that a Tory victory would be a Good Thing in the long run, are you?
Absolutely not, Shona! Just saying it could happen, and trying to tease out the possible consequences.
A lot depends on what happens next may.
I know a lot of people are complacent about the London mayoral election but this is misplaced.
On first preference Ken will clearly get more votes, but Boris could easily win it on second preferences.
Recall the 195000 odd second preference votes for UKIP in 2004, and Ken won by only 175000.
The Andrew Gilligan articles in the Standard, particlarly todays attacking spending on anti-racism and BME communities suggest a coherent Tory strategy to win over the hard right second preferences.
Oh yeah the point of the psepholgy is imagine the last year of a brown govt with a hard right Tory administratioon running London.
oh yeah, ,and the point of that is, stop the ultra left nonsense and lets make sure Livingston wins.
Are you defending Lee Jasper?, then Andy, the E/S clearly does have an agenda and we should be wary, but the evidence is mounting up that Jasper and his cronies are knee deep in sleaze, crying racism does the left no good, if he is guilty he should be charged.
On the LRC, it was disappointing not to see any banner/organised presence from them on the climate change demo on Saturday. What happened, comrades?
Who for leader after Brown? Surely he would go if defeated in the next general election.
Miliband as the candidate of the Right? Alan Johnson? John Denham?
Jon Cruddas?
Jon Cruddas as the soft-leftier candidate of course.
I would imagine Johnson positioning himself (or trying to) in the centre.
Jacqui Smith as another candidate of the right? If she doesn’t lose her seat.
I find it ever-more difficult to believe that it will ever be possible for the Labour party to reclaim something of its socialist roots. I’m aware that the member base most probably remains considerably old Labour but as far as MPs are concerned there seems precious few left to fight the good fight.
Maybe I’m being pessimistic but the political landscape in Britain just seems bleaker by the day.
A Swansea Blog
A Tory victory would not make for smooth govenment – there’d be a lot of infighting over the EU and the Union, especially if the majority was slim.
As for Labour, I can’t help feeling that a left turn, however slight, would result in the Miliband Tendency hopping into bed with the LibDems in fear of social democratic politics – the LDs now comfortably neoliberal (the party conference voted to flog postal services!)
Well, Tory victory is remote, they need an uber swing just to be the largest party, never mind an overall majority – the quetion then becomes, who will pay the lib-dem price – PR? For the Tories it’s electoral suicide, for Labour – certainly the Big tentists, a golden opportunity for perpetual progressive rule. An almost guaranteed second Brown term, with Clegg as Home Secretary?
Brown has let it be known he favours the Alternative Vote, the lib dems may drop ST but would probably want the additional member system (like in Scotland and Wales – an awful system), and so we would finally end uop with the jenkins report being implemented.
Frenetic.
I have no doubt that Gilligan’s attacks on Jasper, and now Respect member Kumar Murshid are a crude playing of the race card
I have responded to the attacks here:
http://www.socialistunity.com/?p=1291
It is a web of insinuations, but there seems to be no content.
The so-called sleaze is guilt by association that black politicians are also involved in practical BME projects in their communities.
Don’t know where the banner was but on Saturday John McDonnell was at the launch of an LRC group on Merseyside. Frankly, if the Labour left is to progress then it HAS to get beyond demonstrations where it can muster a nice banner and a couple of hundred people ( important as that is) Without regional support and a proper presence in the constituencies then we’re a spent force. It’s going to be really hard work and a lot less fun than marching down Whitehall but most of us don’t live in London and local campaigns and involvement on an issue by issue basis have to be a valid and ultimately more fruitful way to go……..
Don’t know where the banner was but on Saturday John McDonnell was at the launch of an LRC group on Merseyside. Frankly, if the Labour left is to progress then it HAS to get beyond demonstrations where it can muster a nice banner and a couple of hundred people ( important as that is) Without regional support and a proper presence in the constituencies then we’re a spent force. It’s going to be really hard work and a lot less fun than marching down Whitehall but most of us don’t live in London and local campaigns and involvement on an issue by issue basis have to be a valid and ultimately more fruitful way to go……..
Don’t know where the banner was but on Saturday John McDonnell was at the launch of an LRC group on Merseyside. Frankly, if the Labour left is to progress then it HAS to get beyond demonstrations where it can muster a nice banner and a couple of hundred people ( important as that is) Without regional support and a proper presence in the constituencies then we’re a spent force. It’s going to be really hard work and a lot less fun than marching down Whitehall but most of us don’t live in London and local campaigns and involvement on an issue by issue basis have to be a valid and ultimately more fruitful way to go……..
Don’t know where the banner was but on Saturday John McDonnell was at the launch of an LRC group on Merseyside. Frankly, if the Labour left is to progress then it HAS to get beyond demonstrations where it can muster a nice banner and a couple of hundred people ( important as that is) Without regional support and a proper presence in the constituencies then we’re a spent force. It’s going to be really hard work and a lot less fun than marching down Whitehall but most of us don’t live in London and local campaigns and involvement on an issue by issue basis have to be a valid and ultimately more fruitful way to go……..
Don’t know where the banner was but on Saturday John McDonnell was at the launch of an LRC group on Merseyside. Frankly, if the Labour left is to progress then it HAS to get beyond demonstrations where it can muster a nice banner and a couple of hundred people ( important as that is) Without regional support and a proper presence in the constituencies then we’re a spent force. It’s going to be really hard work and a lot less fun than marching down Whitehall but most of us don’t live in London and local campaigns and involvement on an issue by issue basis have to be a valid and ultimately more fruitful way to go……..
Don’t know where the banner was but on Saturday John McDonnell was at the launch of an LRC group on Merseyside. Frankly, if the Labour left is to progress then it HAS to get beyond demonstrations where it can muster a nice banner and a couple of hundred people ( important as that is) Without regional support and a proper presence in the constituencies then we’re a spent force. It’s going to be really hard work and a lot less fun than marching down Whitehall but most of us don’t live in London and local campaigns and involvement on an issue by issue basis have to be a valid and ultimately more fruitful way to go……..
Exacctly, susan, it is hard work at a local level which will mean the resurgence of the left, not the far left grandstanding which catches the coat tails of every new social movement just to get a dividend’, eg new members, publicity, etc.
And ‘hard work at local level’ doesn’t mean spending most of the time planning/fighting to get some resolution/policy passed at a Labour Party meeting.
Andy Newman
Interesting point about guilt by association for back politicians.
Funnily enough I wrote about it yesrerday. Here http://action-without-theory.blogspot.com/2007/12/does-labour-betray-asian-members.html
Should have said it earlier: Great title, but dodgy politics.
I see it as complementary to my “deep shit on the horizon”
But soft left politics ain’t gonna be the answer to this……
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7140771.stm
A recent report has shown over 2/3 of new employment went to migrant labour, yet we have over one and a half million people unemployed,many of them very young, Neets, etc. Abandoned by the one social force that should be there for them.
The silence from the far left on this, New Deal, benefit cuts, etc has been deafening. How on earth can anyone, particularly the poor, working class, etc take the far left seriously
‘Should have said it earlier: Great title, but dodgy politics.
I see it as complementary to my “deep shit on the horizon”
But soft left politics ain’t gonna be the answer to this……’
And your point is what? That it’s all the fault of immigration, but capitalism hasn’t got anything to do with it?
Not sure if you’re using ball, aerosol, or just underarm, but you smell ever so slightly Strasserite to me.
Employers will always use the cheapest least organised labour, given the chance.
Meanwhile, the likelihood is that unemployment will grow in 2008 as a result of the growing crisis in the financial sector.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development’s Chief Economist John Philpott said recently:-
“…without wishing to sound like Scrooge… Employment in the financial services sector, easily the main engine of jobs growth in 2007, is only just starting to feel the chill wind of the credit crunch. And with public sector employment now clearly on a downward path, sources of job creation will be few and far between in 2008 as the economy slows.
“Indeed, there is already an unwelcome Grinch in the latest jobs figures – signs of an increase in the number of people being made redundant. This may become a more common sight in 2008 with far more people than in recent years being reacquainted with their P45s.”